New Power Shifts Fuel Millionaire Migration

President Donald Trump’s decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities before toying with the idea in public of regime change has thrown the whole pack of cards up into the air. Overnight, the Gulf States, Israel, and the wider Middle East seem potentially less attractive as a destination for high-net-worth individuals. Many will now likely hedge while awaiting to see what the short-term and mid-term fallout of these developments is.

If Iran’s regime does fall, then it could be accompanied by significant violence and a consequent outflow of refugees from among the country’s population of 90 million, with a huge disruptive impact on Türkiye, Europe, and conceivably the Gulf States. Equally, if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz as it has threatened or retaliates against American targets in the region, then all bets are off, and few places will be looking secure.

It’s not as if there hasn’t been an excess of drama since President Trump’s inauguration on January 20^th. As Vladimir Lenin, leader of the Bolshevik revolution, pithily observed, “There are decades when nothing happens, then weeks where decades happen.” Since January, the decades have appeared to fly past like carriages on a runaway train. We’ve seen markets fizzing and flaring out of control like rogue fireworks, geopolitical certainties cast in iron melting before our eyes, tariffs here, tariffs there, and seismic electoral upsets.

So far Trump’s second administration has been a bewildering circus of uncertainty consisting of executive orders, courtroom dramas, meme coins, cack-handed peace initiatives, and departmental shakeups. Amid the noise, new and unexpected opportunities are emerging but with a significantly elevated element of risk. Anyone who bet on the dollar as President Trump came in, for example, must be licking their wounds now.

Global trade games

The withering verdict of Wall Street on Trump’s tariff strategy triggered such a dramatic collapse in stocks and individual fortunes that before long the president was forced to start rowing back on it (without, of course, admitting error). Nonetheless there will be long-term consequences to the wild imposition of tariffs as investors grow wary of US market conditions, seeking safe havens like gold instead and, indeed, other more stable economies.

The US president was in for a further shock because China, the main target of his tariffs, signaled it was going to tough them out. And while this means considerable pain for China’s manufacturing base, Beijing’s position reflected a sentiment shared widely across the world: although it accounts for 25% of the global economy, the USA is in danger of overplaying its hand. China’s hardline approach was rewarded when the USA scaled back its tariffs following intense trade negotiations. However, it’s unlikely that we’ve heard the last of this back and forth.

Despite the vicissitudes of global trade, Trump has again promised further tax cuts. For the moment, his administration is not deterring the wealthy from relocating to the USA in large numbers — although it hasn’t been quite enough to knock the UAE off the top spot as the world’s leading destination for migrating millionaires. After boasting a remarkable 98% increase in its millionaire population in the decade from 2014, the Emirates is projected to attract a further 9,800 relocating high-net-worth individuals in 2025 — over 2,000 ahead of the estimated net inflow to the USA.

The UK’s staggering wealth exodus

Britain’s vulnerability to these choppy geopolitical waters following its decision to leave the European Union is now patently obvious. The UK’s economy is too small to compete with the financial firepower and trade leverage that the EU, China, and the USA possess. The Bank of England’s assessment that Brexit has cost the economy 4% translates to about GBP 32 billion per annum. The previous Conservative government sought to offset these huge losses by increasing both taxes and compliance measures, targeting wealthy individuals. This included the decision of former Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, to scrap the non-dom status. Rachel Reeves, his Labour successor, has followed up with big tax hikes, further reducing the UK’s desirability as a location for high-net-worth investors, and a record net outflow of 16,500 millionaires is forecast this year.

In mid-May, the results of the Sunday Times Rich List 2025 confirmed the exodus detailed by Henley & Partners’ wealth migration data. There was a striking decline in both billionaires and centi-millionaires who call Britain their home. In the 10 years since 2014, Britain was the only one of the Top Ten countries with the wealthiest residents to see a decline in its millionaire population, down a striking 9%. Perhaps devised as a means to counter this trend, Sir Keir Starmer’s government is now considering a new fast-track visa for investors prepared to support key industries, especially hi-tech.

Europe’s emerging wealth hubs

Some EU countries are capitalizing on Britain’s waning attractiveness for the wealthy, with both Italy and Greece predicted to experience a surge in net millionaire inflows in 2025, at 3,600 and 1,200, respectively. For the first time, though, France (-800), Spain (-500), and Germany (-400) are forecast to see a net outflow of high-net-worth individuals. Interestingly, most are heading for other EU destinations such as Italy and Malta, although a significant minority are also choosing the other big winners this year, Switzerland, the UAE and the USA.

Among the most striking entries on the list of fastest growing wealth markets in Europe are Montenegro, with millionaire growth of 124% between 2014 and 2024 — the highest globally — and Malta, with growth of 87%. Nestled between Albania and Croatia on the Adriatic coast, Montenegro boasts a dreamy climate, a competitive tax regime, and gorgeous properties by the sea. As the front-runner among Western Balkan nations for EU accession there is value in relocating there before it joins.

This was demonstrated by the European Court of Justice ruling in late April 2025, which adjudged Malta’s naturalization through investment process to be illegal. At the time of writing, it is unclear what this will mean in practice, but it might well lead to a slowing down of millionaire migration into Malta, which is expected to see a net inflow of 500 high-net-worth individuals this year. The prospect of an EU passport was a significant attraction of the initiative.

The growing attraction of mid-level EU states is fascinating. Poland and Latvia have also seen sharp rises in the number of high-net-worth individuals they are home to over the past decade, with millionaire growth of 82% and 70%, respectively. In the case of the former, its dynamic economy and its increasing political influence inside the EU are undoubtedly important in explaining this. Latvia is forecast to see a net gain of another 100 relocating millionaires in 2025. Many wealthy Russians will have seen the country as a safe haven as it has a large Russian-speaking minority.

By contrast, African and South American countries continue to see net outflows of millionaires, suggesting that amid the prevailing volatility, high-net-worth families are looking for some indications of stability in where they choose to live. Nonetheless, outflows from South Africa and Nigeria appear to be slowing. In the case of South Africa, this is thought to be partly because some high-net-worth individuals leaving the UK are relocating there.

As China consolidates its position as the main competitor to the USA in hi-tech industries, the extraordinary boom in cities like Shenzhen and Hangzhou is leading to an uptick in multi- and centi-millionaires living in the country. The success of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers and robotics and drone industries is also bolstering secondary industries such as indigenous private healthcare. Asia in general remains set to be the most dynamic economic driver in the world.