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Justice Malala is a best-selling South African author, columnist, talk-show host, and media entrepreneur. In 2023, The Economist said he is “perhaps the country’s most astute political commentator”. He writes regular opinion columns for Bloomberg, the Financial Mail, and TimesLIVE. He is a political analyst at Lefika Securities.
The all-too-familiar trends of democratic backsliding, ongoing conflict, and geopolitical contestation must not dim the light of resilient and growing economies on the continent.
Political developments in Africa over the past six months — and those expected in the year ahead — evoke the famous opening of Charles Dickens’ classic, A Tale of Two Cities: It is “the best of times”, as young people from Kenya to Togo courageously protest in support of accountability and representative democracy; it is “the worst of times”, as leaders such as Cameroon’s 92-year-old Paul Biya — who intends to rule until he is 100 — seek to extend their terms in office. It is “the winter of despair”, as Africans face punishing visa restrictions and punitive tariffs from the USA, yet it feels like “the spring of hope”, as African economies show not just resilience but also growth despite global economic turmoil.
Africa continues to be buffeted by contradictory forces. In the wake of numerous flawed elections in 2024, this year began with a resurgence of the war in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a serious retreat from democratic practice in East Africa, deepening democratic backsliding in West Africa, and ongoing violence across the Sahel. Meanwhile, according to the Peace Research Institute Oslo, “Africa remained the most conflict-affected region last year, with 28 state-based conflicts recorded, nearly double the number from a decade earlier.”
At the same time, African leaders have to confront and formulate a response to the USA’s new Africa policy anchored in “trade, not aid” and “peace for deals”. Overtures from Russia, China, and other powers will likewise challenge the continent’s leaders to articulate unified African positions and assert its ability to play at a very high geopolitical level.
At this time of great global disruption, a key — and concerning — trend in Africa is the rise of bilateralism and the slow but noticeable retreat of leaders from the continental multi-lateralism of the past 25 years. The African Union (AU), the continent’s primary instrument for multi-lateral cooperation, has found itself sidelined in efforts to resolve conflict and challenges among member countries. As the war between the DRC, Rwanda, the M23 rebel group, and about 100 militias intensified this year, the AU’s peace mission collapsed. A peace agreement was brokered and signed not in Africa but in Washington D.C. and Doha, thanks to the leaders of the USA and Qatar.
As the US administration clinched trade deals with the European Union and others, AU member states were left to scramble on their own to protect their interests. African countries are turning to bilateral peace-keeping agreements as the AU and regional bodies such as the Southern African Development Community and ECOWAS fail.
This trend was symbolically reinforced in July, when the White House hosted an “African leaders” summit to discuss “commercial opportunities” but only five heads of state were invited (more on this below). Notably, the USA has already signed a separate “minerals for peace” agreement with the DRC, exemplifying the shift toward direct, state-to-state deals. Again, it’s every African country for itself, a trajectory that does not augur well for the survival of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has historically provided non-reciprocal, duty-free access to the lucrative US market for most exports from 32 eligible sub-Saharan countries. AGOA is due for renegotiation in September, but the prospects for a united African front appear dim.
All this said, there are green shoots of multi-lateralism worth noting. The ambitious African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), signed in 2018 to boost trade within the continent by reducing or eliminating tariffs, is beginning to gain traction. According to Afreximbank’s African Trade Report 2025, intra-African trade continued to grow in 2024, reaching USD 208 billion — up 7.7% from the previous year. Wamkele Mene, secretary-general of the AfCFTA, proudly quotes the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, which projects an increase in intra-African trade of up to 45% by 2045 thanks to the agreement.
America has moved to clarify its Africa policy at several key meetings, but anger continues to mount across the continent driven by a series of punitive measures that many African leaders and citizens view as discriminatory and unjust. Tensions have escalated over travel restrictions on Africans, rising tariffs, and the controversial third-country deportation of eight convicted criminals to South Sudan and five to ESwatini (with more in the pipeline) because their home countries refused to accept them.
After the Trump administration banned travelers from seven African countries and placed heightened restrictions on another three, a more extensive wave of travel bans on 26 states is now looming, which would mean 36 of Africa’s 54 nations could be fully or partially banned. African Union Commission chairman Mahamoud Ali Youssouf reportedly lashed out, saying, “We cannot accept visa bans, we cannot accept unfortunate tariffs that have nothing to do with the rules and regulations of the WTO.”
Adding to these tensions are significant funding cuts by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which have already received widespread attention and drawn concern on the continent.
The geopolitical contest for Africa’s natural resources is accelerating. When President Donald Trump met five West African leaders in Washington D.C. in June, he expressly sought to deepen “commercial opportunities” between the USA and African nations and underline his policy shift from aid to trade. He touted Africa’s “very valuable lands, great minerals, [and] great oil deposits”. It remains to be seen how successful his policy will be given that as he slapped sweeping tariffs on African nations, America’s great opponent China announced that it would remove all tariffs on goods from all 53 African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations.
Although the political picture is cause for concern, African economies continue to inch forward. According to the World Bank, economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to reach 3.7% in 2025, up from 3.5% in 2024, with further acceleration to 4.1% and 4.3% expected in 2026 and 2027, respectively. The African Development Bank (AfDB), which revised its initial 2025 forecast downward from 4.1%, still reflects a rebound at 3.9% growth. An impressive 21 African economies are on track to grow by more than 5%, the AfDB said in its annual African Economic Outlook in late May, with Ethiopia, Niger, Rwanda, and Senegal each anticipated to grow by at least 7%. However, resource-intensive countries such as Angola and Nigeria continue to lag due to persistent commodity price volatility and other factors.
The forward march of pan-African finance institution-building is continuing. For example, in June 2025 the African Credit Rating Agency — an initiative to provide independent, credible, credit assessments for African countries, institutions, and businesses — announced it would begin operations by the end of September. Parallel efforts to establish local currency payment systems on the continent are forging ahead, marking a significant step towards reducing the cost and reliance on dollar-based transactions.
Venture capital is seeing the opportunity, with companies raising USD 1 billion in the first five months of 2025 — up from USD 750 million over the same period in 2024, according to the Africa: The Big Deal Substack. Start-ups in Africa have raised USD 2.5 billion in the 12 months to May 2025, the highest total for a 12-month period since early last year, it said.
Africa’s story remains one of dualities. Its economic trajectory reveals resilience and promise, bolstered by institutional innovation and growing investor confidence. Yet these exist alongside deep political fractures and governance setbacks. If African leadership can harness the momentum of economic growth while tackling political dysfunction with equal resolve, the continent may yet turn this moment of paradox into one of transformation.
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